July 26, 2024   

Morning Comments:

Good morning.  Grain and soybean markets are drifting lower this morning after a night session that featured rather tight trading ranges. CU/CZ is ½ cent weaker at -15 ¼; SQ/SX is 2 ¾ cents firmer at +39 ¼. September crude oil is 33 cents lower at 77.95. The Dollar Index is 0.013 weaker at 104.095. Today is the last trading day for August options.  There are indications that China is showing interest in new crop U.S. soybeans due to the combination of declining Brazilian supplies and the recent drop in soybean futures. Weather, specifically extended weather forecasts, remains the dominant market factor. The latest model runs have the EU and GFS forecasts diverging after August 8^th as the GFS model has the eastern half of the U.S. cooler while the EU model maintains above normal temperatures along with below normal rainfall. Both models agree on a warmer than normal outlook the next ten days to two weeks for the entire corn belt. Periodic rain chances are forecast for the eastern belt the next 10 days. The western belt will be drier. The North Dakota wheat tour wrapped up yesterday, estimating the state’s HRS wheat yield at 54.5 bu./acre, the highest ever for the wheat tour, which began in 1992. The North Dakota wheat harvest will begin in about 6 weeks. The uncertainty regarding Midwest weather beyond the first week of August will probably limit buying in front of the weekend. Unless midday weather updates show worsening heat and dryness, a lower close for corn and soybeans looks likely to finish the trading week. Have a good Friday.