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Grain Comments  11/16/18 7:53:50 AM

November 16, 2018   Comments per MIDCO

Morning Comments:

  • Good morning. Grain and soybean markets are trading quietly this morning with the bias slightly weaker. The U.S./Chinese trade negotiations are the big market factor -  reportedly President Trump is requiring that U.S. soybeans be a part of any deal that gets worked out. New crop Brazilian soybeans will hit export channels in earnest by late February, so any window of opportunity for the U.S. to move significant quantities of beans into China will be short lived. Although the talk has been that Brazilian soybeans will be harvested earlier than normal and that perhaps 10 MMT’s would be available for export by January 31st, one noted Brazilian analyst said that the crop is maturing at an average pace and that only about 2 MMT’s would be ready by the end of January. South American weather remains generally favorable for corn and soybean planting and development although some areas of central and northern Brazil will be too wet through month’s end.  The snow Wednesday night and yesterday morning is further slowing the final push to finish corn and soybean harvest – Springfield, IL has already set a record for snow during the month of November. CIF beans, after rallying early in the week, were weaker yesterday. Export sales for the week ended November 8th, in million bu., were as follows:

                                                                                                    2018/19                                                2019/2020
    Corn 35.1 0.1
    Soybeans 17.3 0.0
    Wheat 16.1 0.0

    Soymeal sales (432,300 MT’s) were excellent and soyoil sales were about as expected. A quiet, two-sided trade looks like a good bet, unless we get some fresh trade news today. Have a good Friday and great weekend!


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