July 20, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are sharply higher this morning with fresh one-year highs in November '26 soybeans, while December '26 corn traded above $4.75 for the first time since late May. The CU/CZ spread made a fresh contract low of -23 ½ this morning and continues to widen in line with seasonal tendencies. Soybean spreads have remained relatively steady despite the rally in futures, with the SQ/SX still holding a slight inverse.
• Escalating conflicts in both the Middle East and the Black Sea have fueled another round of buying across the grain markets. U.S. strikes on Iran have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has launched attacks on neighboring U.S. allies. Grain export infrastructure in the Black Sea also remains under pressure as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies. Crude oil is little changed this morning, trading near $82/barrel.
• U.S. corn and soybean crop ratings are expected to decline in this afternoon's Crop Progress report. Trade estimates call for a 2-3% drop in the good-to-excellent category following recent heat and dryness across portions of the Midwest. Managed money was a large buyer of corn last week, with Friday's CFTC report showing funds purchased nearly 31,000 contracts. Current estimates have funds holding a net long position of roughly 57,000 contracts.
• Forecasts call for a cooler weather pattern to develop by midweek, with overnight lows Wednesday dipping into the upper 50s across central Illinois. Rainfall chances continue to favor western Illinois and northern Missouri, while the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest are expected to remain mostly dry over the next 7-10 days—areas that continue to need meaningful rainfall.