July 7, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are slightly firmer this morning following yesterday’s sharp rally. Spreads are mixed with SQ/SX firming to -8 while CU/CZ has widened back out to -19 ¾. Soybean crush margins are down roughly 9c/bu this morning while crude oil is slightly stronger, trading near $69/barrel.
• Soybean futures surged higher yesterday on reports of Chinese soybean purchases along with continued hot and dry weather forecasts. Trade chatter suggests China secured five cargoes of soybeans for Sep/Oct shipment with COFCO as the buyer. CIF soybean bids rallied sharply with October now bid at +102X. I would expect to see flash sales announced soon, potentially as early as this morning. Soybean open interest increased by 45,619 contracts on Monday.
• US crop ratings declined week over week with both corn and soybeans slipping 2% in the good/excellent category. Unlike last year, crop conditions have steadily deteriorated as the summer has progressed. Illinois corn is now rated 58% good/excellent compared to 68% this time last year, while Missouri corn sits at 66% versus 74% a year ago.
• Producer engagement was solid overall yesterday with strong new crop interest noted. Extended US weather models remain somewhat mixed, and forecast updates throughout the day could heavily influence today’s trade. For now, weather and China remain the two primary drivers of the market.