January 13, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
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• Grain markets continue to grind lower following yesterday’s bearish USDA report. March corn broke through all key support levels and is now trending toward the August low near $4.10 futures. Spreads were wider with CH/CK out to -9 ¼ this morning.
• The USDA raised final yield estimates to a record 186.5 bpa, driven by large gains in the Western and Northern Plains. When combined with a 1.3 million–acre increase in harvested acres (primarily silage acres converted to grain), total U.S. corn production ballooned to over 17 billion bushels. Futures sold off sharply following the release and failed to recover. The December stocks report added to the bearish tone, with corn stocks estimated above 13 billion bushels.
• Soybeans were also pressured, though to a lesser extent than corn. USDA confirmed a record 53.0 bpa U.S. yield. Additionally, Brazil’s soybean production estimate was raised to 178 MMT (6.54 billion bushels), reinforcing global supply concerns.
• Trump stated in a truth social post that any country doing business with the Islamic republic of Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff. China buys the majority of Iran’s oil and Brazil exports 9-10 MMT of corn to Iran. The supreme court could rule any day on the legality of the Trump tariffs.
• China’s Sinograin sold 1.1 MMT of reserve soybeans at an auction yesterday. China allegedly bought another 3-5 cargoes of beans yesterday bringing the total soybeans booked near the 12 MMT goal set out by the white house.