August 14, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

Commodities are higher this morning.  For the week (thus far), corn is up 16¢ and beans are up 14 ½¢.  Black Sea disruptions are supporting grain and oilseed prices this morning.  All 3 Novorossiysk grain terminals are now halted and Ukrainian Black Sea exports are heavily constrained. Overnight reports also indicate damage at Ust-Luga, suggesting the risk is spreading beyond the Black Sea. No major Russian or Ukrainian export corridor looks safe currently.  Geopolitical factors and Middle East supply disruption fears continue to impact energy prices. Iran continues to exert influence over the Strait of Hormuz, w/intermittent attacks persisting in the Gulf and Red Sea, while the U.S. has indicated it could maintain port restrictions on Iran indefinitely. Currency and policy developments also add uncertainty across global commodity markets. Trade tensions continue, w/Brazil, India, Australia, and USMCA negotiations centered on tariffs and market access. El Niño is expected to strengthen through early 2027, w/a 97% chance of persisting into spring and a 69% chance of becoming the strongest event since 1950 by late 2026, posing risks to S American crop production.  W Europe remains very dry, raising concerns about winter crop establishment if significant rainfall does not arrive by mid-Sep.  U.S. drought conditions have increased, affecting 29% of corn, 26% of soybean, and 63% of spring wheat acreage as of August 11^th.  CIF markets were fairly quiet yesterday as the trade continued to adjust to Wednesday’s balance sheets. New export corn demand remains lackluster as exporters continue to look to move Aug/FH Sep bushels. Global buyers remain in price check mode as they fret over Black Sea export execution. The CIF bean market had a better tone for Aug and Oct yesterday. Reports indicate early Delta beans are quickly finding a home in the pipeline.  Exporters are blending dry old crop beans from the Midwest w/higher moisture Delta origin bu.  The barge freight market has been quiet on the front end as exports shift to the Lower Miss.  Deferred freight bid/ask spreads are reportedly narrowing.  River conditions are improving due to the recent rainfall across the OH Valley.  Crusher bean basis changes were quiet Thursday.  The few exceptions were Gilman, IL which dropped a dime nearby and Sidney, OH which firmed 6¢.  A few small improvements in corn processor basis was noted in Hennepin, IL ethanol, and Clinton, and Gowrie, IA.  Repeated thunderstorms continue across the Corn Belt, bringing heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Many areas from eastern Nebraska to West Virginia have received 2 to 6” of rain over the past 72 hours, w/parts of Indiana seeing 10 to 12”.  The wet pattern is expected to persist through early next week, w/another 0.5 to 2” of rain forecast across much of the region and additional rainfall likely thereafter.  The Bloomington/Normal area had severe storms yesterday.  Below are a few pics.  We have received an estimated 2 to 3” of rain over the last 72 hours. Managed funds have increased long positions in corn and soybeans, reflecting a more supportive market outlook.