January 15, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
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• Good morning.  Commodities are slightly higher to start the day.  Conab released its updated estimates for 25/26 this morning, pegging Brazil’s bean prod at 176.1, which is slightly lower than their 177.1 MMT estimate in Dec.  For reference, USDA raised Brazil beans by 3 MMT to 178 MMT, a new record on Monday.  Conab left projected total corn production unchanged at 138.9 MMTs.  2^nd crop corn prod was also left unchanged at 110.5 MMT’s.  The Rosario Grain Exchange updated their Argy corn production estimate, taking it to 62 MMTs, an increase of 1 MMT from their previous forecast.  If realized, it would be up nearly 10 MMTs from the previous record in 23/24.  Weather conditions, overall, in S America continue to be favorable. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Pres Trump’s global tariffs did not come yesterday as some expected, so traders will await that ruling.  Yesterday’s weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week ended January 9th up 8.9% from the previous week, notching a new all-time record.  Ethanol stocks also increased to their highest weekly reading since last July.  December NOPA crush will be released today.  The average trade guess is 224.8 mln. bu.  Private exporters reported sales of 136,000 mt’s of corn to S Korea and 334,000 mt’s of beans for delivery to China, both for 25/26 Wednesday morning.  China was reportedly asking for U.S. bean offers Wednesday, but confirmation of actual purchases were lacking.  S American corn export premiums have increased this week and Brazilian bean premiums are slightly higher.  The CIF soybean market worked higher again yesterday. CIF corn remained firm as farmer selling has shut off, barge freight is well bid, and global buyers are not finding other origins willing to make aggressive offers.  Barge freight climbed higher for the IL, Mid Miss, and STL Wednesday (up 5 to 25%).  River water levels are still on the rise.  River basis for corn worked higher yesterday, w/ Havana up a penny and STL up 3c. River beans followed in similar fashion w/ Hennepin gaining 2c and the Quad Cities jumping 7c for Jan.  E crusher bean basis for Jan improved, w/Fostoria and Bellevue, OH up a nickel. The W also saw some firmness w/ Dawson MN, Eagle Grove IA, and Hastings NE each up a nickel. Nearby corn processor bids were steady in the E and the W was mixed.  Much needed rains have fallen across portions of S Argy.  Rain chances improve again late this week, w/yet another chance in the 11 to 15 day outlook.  A significant pattern change will return much of the Midwest and E U.S. into a much colder pattern for the 2nd ½ of Jan. Temps are expected to trend colder in the 7-10 days forecast.
   
  Other headlines this morning:
  * Overnight January deliveries: 68 soybeans, 3 soyoil, and 11 soymeal
  * DOW: trading higher
  * Nearby crude oil: trading lower after moving above $62/bbl yesterday for the 1^st time since Oct 27^th
  * U.S. dollar trading firmer
  * U.S. Inflation held steady in Dec at 2.7%
  * Trump blames Ukraine’s Pres for the stalemate in Russia talks
  * Ukraine’s Pres announced a state of emergency to its energy sector as Russian attacks on infrastructure take a toll
  * Canada’s Prime Minister hails the speed of progress in ties with China
  * Citi raised its Brent forecast to $70/barrel for the next 3-mo. due to these geopolitical risks
  * Trump Iran tariff threat raises risks for U.S./China trade truce
  * Germany’s economy grew for the1st yr since 2022 as govt spending helped overcome its industrial slump
  * In the UK, a recovery in industrial production drove growth to a 5-month high
  * Mexico’s Pres says the USMCA trade agreement is working well for both Mexico & the U.S.
  * China imported 8.04 MMT’s of beans in Dec vs.  8.11 MMT in Nov
  * China’s 2025 bean imports totaled 111.8 MMT’s vs. 105 MMT in 2024
  * Conab calling Brazil’s bean harvest .6% done vs. 1% avg
  * Conab calling Brazil’s summer corn harvest 2.4% done vs. 4.2% avg
  * Grassley prods EPA on exemptions for Renewable Fuel Standards
  * Russia doubled pig farming product exports to China in 2025
  * Global grain traders' green pledges face skepticism as deal to protect Brazil's rainforest unravels
  * New World Screwworm detected 197 miles from U.S./Mexico border
  * Iran is one of the main global producers of urea / Prod capacity of 9 mln. tons/yr