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Grain Comments  08/21/26 8:05:26 AM

August 21, 2026


Mid-Co Morning Comments:

  • Grain markets are lower this morning with Dec ’26 corn dipping below $5 for a short period in the overnight session.  Corn spreads are mostly wider while soybean spreads are mixed. Crude oil futures are slightly firmer with October WTI trading above $87/barrel.
  • Basis was a mixed bag yesterday. Some terminals/processors have been able to back up bids with the futures rally, especially on corn. Soybean processor bids remain firm, Cargill Kansas City bumped posted bids to +85X for FH Sep beans and are at a $1.05 cash inverse to new crop.
  • The pro farmer tour put out some yield estimates for the remainder of Iowa and Minnesota yesterday. Iowa corn was estimated at 194 bpa while Minnesota yield was estimated at 199 bpa. Both were down from a year ago but above the three-year averages. The tour will release an overall yield number today.
  • Early harvested corn south of Springfield, IL has variable with yield numbers coming in around 230bpa and roughly 30% moisture. The early harvested fields have been ones with some disease including crown rot so probably not the best indicator of a crop as a whole. Early yields out of the Delta are decent, but most of those corn acres are irrigated so consistent yield in that area.
  • President Trump said in a Truth Social post that the US will allow up to 300k MT of ground beef imports with no tariff quota. Trump noted “I concluded a deal to substantially lower the price of ground beef for working American families”. Will see what cattle prices do on the open but expecting a big move.
  • Oil Markets

    US to end summer blend gasoline requirement early in attempt to lower prices

    President Donald Trump's administration will end summer-blend gasoline requirements about two weeks early this year in an effort to boost the U.S. fuel supply and lower gas prices, the Environmental Protection Agency said on Thursday. The EPA said it would allow the sale of 10% ethanol, or E10, gasoline with a higher Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) beginning September 1, about two weeks earlier than normal.

    The Iran war energy crisis is just getting started

    The Iran war has pushed the global oil refining industry to the brink, signalling that diesel and gasoline prices may remain elevated for years. Deal or no deal, the global energy inflation shock is far from over. While oil markets adapted remarkably well to the abrupt loss of a fifth of global crude supplies from the Middle East during the conflict, workarounds for the refining industry have been far more limited.

    Agriculture Markets

    Strong Iowa, Minnesota crops unlikely to offset US Corn Belt woes, tour finds

    Scouts found some great crops in eastern areas of Iowa and Minnesota on Thursday but nothing to challenge expectations that this year's U.S. corn crop will fall short of last year's record, as they wrapped up the annual Pro Farmer crop tour. Projected corn yields in Iowa and Minnesota are down from a year ago but higher than the tour's three-year averages, scouts reported on Thursday, the last day of the four-day tour of seven key grain-producing states.

    Europe's heatwave prompts IGC to cut grain crop outlooks

    The International Grains Council on Thursday cut its forecast for the 2026/27 world wheat crop, partly due to a deterioration in production prospects in Britain and the European Union. In its monthly update, the intergovernmental body revised down its 2026/27 world wheat crop outlook by 4 million metric tons to 817 million tons.

    Metals Markets

    Trump administration to back US minerals projects with $500 million in grants

    The U.S. Department of Energy is awarding $500 million in grants to seven companies building domestic lithium, cobalt and other mineral and battery projects, the latest in a string of investments aimed at bolstering American mining and processing, according to a document seen by Reuters. The funding comes weeks after President Donald Trump outlined a goal to make the U.S. the "minerals superpower of the world" and curb reliance on market leader China.

    China exports to US rise of rare earth critical to aerospace sector

    Chinese exports of rare earth yttrium to the U.S. rose in July, Chinese customs data showed on Thursday, possibly giving some reprieve to U.S. aerospace buyers who depend on the material for critical aviation applications. China, the main source of the element used in specialty alloys found in engines as well as coatings to shield against high temperatures, restricted exports along with other rare earths in April 2025, sparking fears of a new rare earth crisis.

    Carbon & Power Markets

    Poland plans temporary corporate tax hike for big utilities, fuel companies

    Poland's government plans to temporarily raise corporate income tax for large utilities and fuel companies to 30% in 2027 from 19% currently, according to assumptions for a draft bill published on Thursday. The higher rate would apply to companies with annual revenue above €50 million. The proposal was first reported by state news agency PAP.

    India weighs low-cost loans for renewable projects hit by power curbs

    India is considering offering low-cost loans to renewable energy producers to compensate them for losses they have incurred because inadequate transmission infrastructure limited how much they could supply, four industry sources said. The South Asian nation's transmission network has struggled to keep pace with the increase in green energy, particularly solar, which represents about 162 gigawatts, or nearly a third of its power generation capacity, according to government figures.

    Dry Freight Markets

    Global wheat buyers brace for supply squeeze amid Black Sea attacks

    Global wheat importers are bracing for tighter supplies as attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure disrupt shipments, heightening food security risks for top buyers such as Egypt and Indonesia, while driving up prices. Benchmark Chicago futures have climbed more than 17% since the start of July, fuelled largely by a shortfall in Black Sea supplies, with physical prices making strong gains in rival exporters Argentina, Australia and the United States.

    France set for rare wheat shipment to Sudan, LSEG data shows

    Around 67,000 metric tons of wheat destined for Sudan are set to be loaded onto a vessel in France over the coming days, LSEG data showed on Thursday, in the first such shipment in 18 years. A bulk carrier was due to have started loading on Wednesday at Rouen before topping up next week at Dunkirk, another northern French port, the data showed.

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