July 6, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are sharply higher this morning as hot and dry Midwest weather forecasts continue to gain attention. Old crop spreads are mostly wider with CU/CZ and SQ/SX weaker, while new crop spreads are stronger. December corn has traded back above $4.50 for the first time in over a month, and Nov ’26 soybeans have pushed through the 50-day moving average. Crude oil prices are lower this morning with Aug WTI trading around $68.30/barrel.
• Forecast models continue to trend hotter and drier for much of the Corn Belt during the second half of July, with growing confidence in the 8–14 day outlook. Locally, weekend rainfall totals were highly variable across the region, with some areas catching solid moisture while others missed out.
• Extreme heat across Europe has sharply reduced corn crop ratings. The USDA is currently projecting France corn production at 13 MMT, though additional cuts remain possible. Production issues in Europe combined with any domestic weather stress could tighten the global corn balance sheet quickly.
• This afternoon’s COT report is expected to show some fund buying in corn. Current estimates have funds nearly even on their corn position, especially after today’s rally in the futures market.
• Reports continue to circulate that China has been inquiring about new crop soybean purchases. Keep an eye out for potential flash sales this week, as the market would likely react quickly to any confirmed business. Barge freight activity for Aug/Sep has also picked up recently, with freight values firming in those nearby windows.