September 25, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are sharply lower this morning with corn and soybeans both down double digits. December corn has fallen to its lowest level since August 25th. Nearby spreads are mostly steady, while deferred spreads are slightly wider. November WTI crude oil is down roughly $2/barrel.
• The Trump/Xi meeting has yet to deliver the news the market was looking for, prompting a sharp selloff and fund liquidation. Meetings continue today, with any mention of agricultural purchases likely to draw plenty of attention. We saw a similar reaction following the last round of talks before the White House released a “fact sheet” after market hours that specifically referenced agricultural goods. Something similar could happen again, so keep an eye on headlines over the weekend and use caution with grain bought after today’s close.
• Soybean basis remains extremely volatile as processors continue to firm bids across the Midwest. Incobrasa moved September beans to +50X this morning, while crush margins remain well supported by stronger soybean meal values.
• Weather forecasts continue to advertise widespread rainfall across the Central U.S. over the next week, which could slow harvest activity—particularly soybeans. That should help keep nearby bean premiums supported into early October. Friends in Western Kansas reported flooding after more than 4 inches of rain in some areas. The moisture comes too late to benefit fall crops but should improve conditions ahead of winter wheat planting.
• Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb increased this week with coordinated U.S. military protection. At the same time, U.S.-Iran talks have shown little progress, keeping geopolitical risk in the energy complex despite crude trading lower this morning.
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