September 14, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are mixed in early trade this morning with corn trading on both sides of unchanged and soybeans a couple of cents higher. Corn and soybean spreads are quiet, with both CZ/CH and SX/SF unchanged so far. Crude oil continues its march higher, with October WTI up nearly $5/barrel and trading around $104.50/barrel.
• The September FOMC meeting takes place this week, with the market expecting a ¼-point rate hike. Prediction markets currently put the odds of an increase around 85% following hotter-than-expected August inflation data. Headline CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation increased 0.3% for the month.
• Basis changes were minimal following Friday’s report. River values remain defensive as new crop harvest advances to the south, with reports of solid farmer selling as bushels come out of the field. Iowa could become an interesting area for old crop basis if the wetter pattern sticks around, although most areas are still a couple of weeks away from meaningful harvest activity.
• Weather forecasts continue to call for heavy rainfall across Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin over the next week, while the heavier totals have shifted farther north in Illinois over the past couple of days. I drove back from the race in St. Louis over the weekend and saw a good amount of field activity south of Springfield. Harvest is clearly starting to get rolling in that part of the state.