April 30, 2025

Morning Comments:
 

• Happy First Notice Day. Markets are mostly lower this morning with Soybeans leading the charge down 10 ½ on the July contract. Front month spreads are firmer on FND with volumes on the May contracts decreased.
• Spreads were volatile yesterday with the CK/CN getting as wide as -10 and SK/SN out to -12. Both of those spreads are firmer this morning. The CN/CU got down to +35 with heavy selling pressure on the CN25 with may shorts getting rolled out. New crop spreads made new lows as CZ/CH widened to -15.
• Corn market was weaker yesterday on a variety of factors but mostly on favorable planting weather forecasts for most of the corn belt. A lot of weather models agree on a ridge forming in the corn belt next week that will allow much of the crop to get in by Mother’s Day (maps below). Private estimates showed funds were sellers of 21k contracts yesterday.  
• India is emerging as the most likely candidate for the Trump administration’s first major bilateral trade deal. India has 590 planes ordered from Boeing valued at $67 billion, which is a big point of interest for any trade deal.
• China will be going on their ‘Labor Day’ holiday so should be quiet in terms of soybean purchases and some policy changes until they return from that.
• Basis changes were a mixed bag yesterday as a lot of terminals/locations rolled bids to the July. Southern Minnesota soybean processors firmed 7c on the roll. I would guess most locations other than some river loaders are rolled by the end of the day.
• The March USDA Fats and Oils and Grain Crushings reports come out tomorrow at 2pm.

• The CME Group's delivery slate for first notice day on the May contract was expectedly active on the soy product front, with 629 contracts of soybean meal being assigned and 852 contracts of soybean oil; also on the slate was 430 contracts of KC wheat, 240 contracts of rice, 88 contracts of Chicago wheat, 25 contracts of corn, and 3 contracts of soybeans.
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• This morning's weekly ethanol report from the EIA for the week ending April 25th is expected to show daily ethanol production in the week in a range of 1.010-1.041 mil bbls, while stocks are seen between 24.50-25.78 mil bbls. On average, both figures would be below those of last week, while the downturn in production continues to be viewed as mostly seasonal.
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• The USDA is scheduled to release updated soybean crush and corn grind data tomorrow morning in its monthly fats and oils and grain crushings reports; traders see the reports showing soybean crush in the month of March at 205.9 mil bu, up 1.2% compared to last year, while corn grind for ethanol is seen at 459.9 mil bu, which would be down 2.6% from last year. The report also shows soybean oil stocks data as of March 31st, which the trade expects will be near 1.940 bil lbs (-18%).
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• Data from Argentina's Ag Ministry, released yesterday, showed farmer soybean sales through April 23rd were at the slowest pace in more than 10 years due to uncertainties regarding the country's exchange rate and also delays in harvest caused by excessive rainfall. The data estimated that less than 25% of the crop had been marketed so far.
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• The USDA's Ag attaché to Australia on Tuesday said they see the country's wheat production in the 2025/26 season at 31.0 mmt's, which would be down more than 3 mmt's from 2024/25 production mostly on reduced harvested area, and also a yearly decrease in yields. The group also sees exports coming in about 3 mmt's lower than last year at 23.0 mmt's.
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• Mexico's government announced on Tuesday that it had created a new state-owned seed company with the goal of increasing production of certified seeds for staple crops. The announcement said the company's focus would start on soybean and rice seeds, and would be aimed primarily towards small and medium sized producers who often have struggles accessing quality seeds.
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• US corn growers expressed concern over a Tuesday International Trade Commission decision that affirmed Corteva had been negatively impacted by imports of the common herbicide 2,4-D, saying that any moves to limit imports of the product could cause supply shortages that would have negative impacts on US farmers already facing high costs of production. "Corn growers should not be forced to rely exclusively on one domestic supplier," said the President of the National Cron Growers Association.
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• The World Bank, in an annual commodity market outlook report, said that they expect overall commodity prices to decline by about 12% in the 2025 calendar year due to weaker global economic growth and slowing demand; the group also added that they see prices falling another 5% in the 2026 year as well. Declining rice prices were the main reason cited for the declines, with values expected to drop by nearly 30% due to ample supplies and a relaxing of export restrictions from the world's number two grower, India.
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• Speaking to supporters at a rally outside of Detroit, MI Tuesday night marking his first 100 days in office, President Trump renewed his derogatory remarks towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell, again reiterating that he felt the chairman was not doing a sufficient job. Trump also touted cuts in auto part tariffs, saying that he and his team gave auto companies a little flexibility in time to bring manufacturing back to the US in signing a pair of executive orders last night before the rally began.
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• The south-central part of the US will continue to see severe weather threats through the day on Wednesday, with the highest risk areas being near the eastern part of the TX/OK border. The EU is forecasting 1-3" of precip in these areas over the next 24 hours, with the storms then expected to work north and east through tonight and into tomorrow. Through Sunday, the model is forecasting precip of 1-2" generally speaking for most of the eastern Midwest, with the northwestern states of IA/WI/MN and then further west being on the drier side.
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  Once this system exits, most of the Corn Belt then expects to see several days of drier conditions as high pressure ridging pushes the Gulf Moisture flow into the southern Plains and south-central US next week. While beneficial to the Midwest farmer trying to finish spring fieldwork and planting, the pattern shift will cause potential flood risks to TX and OK that will need to be monitored as they pertain to both the wheat crop and also the livestock industry.