October 1, 2026

Mid-Co Morning Comments:
 

• Grain markets are quiet this morning with corn slightly firmer and soybeans trading a few cents lower. Yesterday’s selloff followed a bearish USDA stocks report, with corn inventories coming in 177 million bushels above the average trade estimate. Spreads took some pressure off the flat price move, with CZ/CH widening to -15 and SX/SF moving back to full storage carry (-16 or better).
• The headline surprise yesterday was Sept. 1 corn stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, above the high end of trade expectations and up 35% from a year ago. Funds reacted quickly to the bearish number, with estimates of roughly 58,000 corn contracts sold on the day. Soybean stocks were more neutral to friendly, allowing bean futures to hold together much better. Looking back over the last couple of months, the weak corn basis—particularly in the West—makes more sense with the amount of old-crop inventory still sitting in the pipeline. Please click the attached link for more information on yesterday’s report with MID-CO maps.
• The additional 177 million bushels of corn stocks adds to the balance sheet heading into the ’26/’27 crop year. To rebuild a bullish corn story, the market will likely need help from a lower-than-expected U.S. yield, a South American weather scare, or another shot of demand such as Chinese corn purchases.
• Soybean basis premiums are starting to fade in Iowa as forecasts turn drier and a better harvest window looks to open next week. Multiple processors backed off bids yesterday, highlighted by AGP Sheldon dropping nearby beans from +70X to option. Farther east, processors across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio appear to be getting their fill as more new-crop soybeans work into the pipeline.