Grain Comments 12/02/25 8:13:32 AM
December 2, 2025
Morning Comments:
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Commodities are mixed this morning. Fresh news remains thin. Market participants continue to watch for bean sales to China and are keeping an eye on S. America’s weather conditions and production prospects. There were no soybean flash sales from the USDA yesterday morning and weekly export inspections data showed no beans were shipped to China LW. YTD soybean inspections continue to lag and are down approx. 46% from LY. Brazilian soybean production forecasts are mixed. Most recently, Patria Agronegocios adjusted their forecast for Brazil's soy production slightly higher while StoneX adjusted their estimate lower. Reports overnight indicate Spain and China reached an agreement for the European country to resume pork exports from non ASF affected regions. For reference, Spain is the EU's leading pork producer, and some 42% of its exports usually go to China. Yesterday afternoon, CIF corn rolled to the CH nearby and LH Dec dropped a penny. Export traders did indicate they saw some new demand to start the week as corn prices in Brazil and Argy are finding some support. CIF beans firmed yesterday. Export traders reported they were finding buyers at current levels which pushed Dec-Jan values higher. Barge freight was mixed. It is still early to say there will be ice troubles on the IL River, but with the cold start to the winter the odds are increasing. Domestically, corn processor values were mixed Monday afternoon as end users rolled front month bids from vs. CZ25 to vs. CH26. The KCS Jacksonville, IL rail corn market improved 2¢ nearby. Crusher bean basis was little changed, other than Quincy, IL dropping 3c nearby. The CFTC is scheduled to release another round of catch-up fund position data this afternoon for the week ending Oct 21st. Most of the Midwest saw additional snowfall on Monday and into this morning, w/another 2-4" reported across parts of MO and IL and heavier amounts further west around Kansas City. The bulk of the Midwest should see drier conditions for a few days before another low pressure system materializes over the weekend.
Other headlines this morning:
* DOW: trading higher
* Nearby crude oil: trading slightly lower
* U.S. dollar trading marginally stronger
* Japanese bonds gained after an auction of 10-yr securities drew solid demand
* Cyber Monday spending grew more slowly in the U.S. than Europe
* Bank of England cuts est. of how much capital UK’s banking sector needs for 1st time in a decade
* Venezuela’s Pres running out of options to step down and leave Venezuela following Trump ultimatum
* Ukraine's 2026 wheat crop seen at 24 to 25 MMT’s
* Ukraine's key farm exports jump 12% in Nov vs. Oct
* AgRural: Brazil bean planting 89% done as of Nov. 27th
* Weather delays bean planting in Goiás
* Paraguay’s 1st 2026 soy harvest will likely be delayed until 2nd ½ of Jan
* Talk Argy wheat protein levels well short of expectations
* U.S. red meat prod fell 2.6% Y/Y in Oct
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