November 15, 2025

Morning Comments:
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• Grain markets are higher this morning after opening the overnight session lower. Soybeans are posting double-digit gains and sit just 14c off last Friday’s highs. Spreads are firmer across the board, with CZ/CH ¼c firmer at –13½ and SF/SH over a penny firmer at –10¼.
• Friday’s USDA report leaned bearish, as yield cuts were smaller than expected. USDA lowered U.S. corn yield to 186.0 bpa versus the trade’s 184.0 bpa estimate. Before the report, December corn briefly matched early-June highs and pushed above its 200-day moving average and is now trading below the 200-day moving average.
• Basis changes were mostly quiet following the USDA update. Some weakness emerged at soybean processors: Incobrasa Gilman is now –10F, and ADM Decatur is posted at –5F. CIF soybeans were also lower Friday, with November now bid +60F.
• President Trump and Scott Bessent signaled that China will secure U.S. soybeans by year-end, referencing the widely discussed 12 MMT (440 million bu) target. China has not officially confirmed these purchases, and daily export inspections released during the WASDE reflected lower-than-expected Chinese soybean purchases.
• December grain options expire this Friday, with sizable open interest that could fuel choppy trade into month-end. Open interest includes roughly 890k corn, 262k soybeans, 158k soybean meal, 175k soybean oil, 157k Chicago wheat, and 32k KC wheat December options.