Grain Comments 03/24/26 8:18:57 AM
March 24, 2026
Mid-Co Morning Comments:
Commodities are mixed on this Turnaround Tuesday, w/the grains now trading slightly higher and soybeans lower. Markets appear confused about who exactly is talking to who as the U.S. and Iranian messages regarding the conflict in the Middle East differs starkly- thus the swings in the markets. Fighting between Iran and the U.S./Israeli alliance has continued, despite Pres Trump saying talks are under way to end the conflict. Trump had paused planned U.S. strikes on Iranian power/energy infrastructure yesterday morning after saying talks with Iran were “constructive.” In return, Iran denied any communication with the U.S., contradicting Trump’s claims. Regardless, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, w/only a small amount of Indian and Iranian cargoes reportedly transiting through. Offshore oil reserves have rapidly fallen. Floating oil storage is estimated around 78M barrels, and stockpiles have halved since late LY, when they peaked due to shifts in Russian and Iranian trade flows. Yesterday, EPA’s Admin Zeldon said a biofuel blending quota announcement will be made before the end of the month, raising the odds of an announcement at the White House's Celebration of Ag event Friday. Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 102,000 mt’s of corn and 161,120 mt’s of beans- both to Mexico for 25/26. The Chinese were quiet coming out of the weekend on the buying front. Traders were hopeful on Monday that a quick resolution w/Iran could result in Pres Trump moving up his visit to Beijing but that looks unlikely this morning. A delegation from Brazil's Ag Ministry has begun talks w/Chinese authorities re: phytosanitary inspection rules for Brazilian beans, following complaints from exporters Chinese demands were complicating the cert process. The ministry said discussions were only starting and no decisions had been reached. This was contrary to talk on Monday that China had already moved to relax the rules and allowed previously rejected cargoes from Brazil to clear without reinspection. Sources indicate China has more than sufficient supplies of soybeans on the front end. Late LW, nearby Brazilian bean export basis was flat, while June offerings firmed out of Santos. Argy corn export premiums were easier while Brazil values held steady. Feedgrain export interest remains routine, w/Egypt shopping for May corn and Japan for July. CIF beans started the week softer for Apr/May/June/July while Aug showed some improvement. CIF corn was slightly lower in the June/July/August timeslots but otherwise unchanged. Processor corn held mostly steady yesterday afternoon. River corn was steady to a few cents firmer nearby. Crusher bean basis was mixed. Decatur dropped 8¢ nearby while Bellevue, OH and Cedar Rapids, IA firmed a nickel, and IA Falls and KC improved a dime. River beans were mixed. SK26/SN26 notched a new low Monday, pushing out to -16 and is trading at -15 ¾ this morning. Forecasts for much of the Midwest appear dry to start the week, with wetter/warmer conditions expected later in the week.
Other headlines this morning:
* LTD for April grain options is Friday
* DOW: trading lower
* U.S. dollar trading firmer
* Private credit continues to show stress
* Nearby crude oil trading up roughly $2.90/barrel
* The Iran conflict hitting gas harder than oil due to fewer rerouting options/less storage capacity
* Countries move to boost ethanol use as oil prices remain high
* Senate confirmed Trump's Homeland Security Secretary nominee: Markwayne Mullin
* Senators from both parties optimistic re: deal to fund DHS& end the 5-wk partial shutdown
* N Korea’s Kim Jong Un to permanently strengthen nuclear forces & treat S Korea as its most hostile state
* Brazil shipped 3.48 MMT of soybeans in the week ending Mar 20th
* Total Brazilian soy export commitments are 35.4 MMT, up 1.61 MMT from a YA
* S American forecasts are wet for the next week
* Patria Agronegocios: called Brazil’s soy harvest 66% done on Friday
* AgRural: pegged Brazil’s bean harvest at 68% complete yesterday
* AgRural: calls Brazil’s winter corn crop 97% planted in the C/S region
* Brazil's soy exports have fallen an avg of 18%/day thus far in Mar amid shipping challenges
* MARS: Europe’s crops exit winter dormancy in favorable condition
* IFX: Russia’s March grain exports triple Y/Y amid Iran war
* Russia imposes restrictions on some fertilizer exports
* Australia to plant less wheat as global fertilizer woes deepen
* U.S. winter wheat conditions declined 6% in KS to 46% G/Ex
* U.S. winter wheat conditions declined 4% in OK to 14% G/Ex
* USDA will resume releasing regular weekly crop progress data on Monday, April 6th
* AgMarket.net: forecasting 94.4 mln yc acres this year / 86.1 mln. ysb acres
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